The French real estate market in the second half of 2026 is viewed through three technical signals that do not converge: a partial recovery in new construction, standardized housing credit but under prudential constraints, and a net decline in the MaPrimeRénov’ scheme. Here, we analyze the concrete mechanisms behind these movements.
New construction: 376,241 housing units authorized, a deceptive recovery
Between July 2025 and June 2026, the SDES records 376,241 housing units authorized for construction. This figure marks a positive inflection after several years of contraction, but it remains 8.0% lower than the average of the previous five years.
You may also like : The latest trends and analyses in the business world to discover online
The gap between authorizations and actual construction starts complicates the reading. Developers obtain permits without necessarily starting work, due to insufficient marketing or unsuitable financing conditions. We observe that construction starts in the first half of 2026 increase by about 30% compared to the same period the previous year, according to data reported by the specialized press.
This recovery remains geographically concentrated. Tense areas (Île-de-France, major metropolitan areas) absorb most of the demand, while relaxed markets struggle to attract operators. Following the news on Immo et Habitat allows for measuring these territorial disparities over time as local data is published.
See also : Everything You Need to Know About the Conditions and Date of the 13th Month Leclerc in 2024
Building permits and regulatory simplification
A second mega-decree of simplification modifies certain housing and urban planning rules in 2026. The stated objective: to reduce the processing times for permits and lighten the constraints for small operations. The real impact on the volume of delivered housing will not be measurable until 2027.
Housing credit and mortgage rates: normalization under ACPR constraints
The production of housing credit is recovering without a relaxation of prudential criteria. The ACPR confirms in its analysis of housing financing in 2025 that banks have returned to distribution volumes closer to normal, while maintaining strict safeguards on the debt-to-income ratio and loan duration.
The usury rate, recalculated monthly, has ceased to play the locking role it held in 2023-2024. Borrowers are regaining negotiation margins, provided they present a significant personal contribution and a living allowance compliant with HCSF requirements.
- The maximum debt-to-income ratio remains capped at 35% of net income, including borrower insurance
- The loan duration does not exceed 25 years (27 years in VEFA or with major works)
- Bank exemptions, limited to 20% of quarterly production, primarily target first-time buyers and the purchase of primary residences
For investors in SCPI or paper real estate, this configuration means that the leverage of credit remains accessible, but that the net leverage effect depends on the differential between distributed yield and total financing cost. An SCPI showing a distribution rate lower than the real cost of credit after tax generates a negative carry that many underestimate.
MaPrimeRénov’ 2026: decline in aid and drop in overall renovation files
The assessment from Anah in the first half of 2026 confirms a significant drop in large-scale renovation files. Following the temporary suspension of the scheme in the summer of 2025 and the refocusing of eligibility conditions, the aid scales have been reduced and new applications have fallen compared to 2025.
This decline has direct consequences on the transaction market. Thermal sieves classified F or G, whose rental is gradually prohibited, are losing attractiveness for investors who relied on MaPrimeRénov’ to finance energy renovation.
Mandatory collective DPE and reclassification of housing
Since January 1, 2026, the collective DPE is mandatory for all residential buildings. The new calculation method, more favorable to electric heating, leads to the automatic reclassification of thousands of housing units. An apartment classified E with recent electric heating can switch to D without any work.
We recommend systematically checking the date of the DPE before any acquisition. A DPE carried out before 2026 does not reflect the new scale and may distort the renovation budget estimate.
Rental investment and taxation: what the Jeanbrun law changes
The Jeanbrun law, still under parliamentary discussion, aims to restructure tax incentives for rental investment following the gradual phasing out of the Pinel scheme. The final contours are not yet settled, but several directions are emerging:
- A refocusing of tax advantages on housing located in tense areas, with revised rent ceilings
- Stronger conditionality related to the energy performance of the property (DPE A, B, or C)
- A mechanism for amortizing the acquisition price, inspired by the LMNP status but framed differently
For holders of shares in European SCPI, the taxation of foreign rental income remains a lever for optimization. Bilateral tax treaties allow in some cases to avoid double taxation, a parameter that most online simulators do not model correctly.
Prohibition of real estate telemarketing: what changes in August 2026
A regulatory tightening aimed at telemarketing in the real estate sector comes into effect in August 2026. Real estate transaction and property management professionals can no longer prospect by phone without explicit prior consent from the individual.
This measure directly affects networks of agents and lead generation platforms. Business models based on massive outbound calling will need to pivot towards content or referral-based acquisition strategies.
The French real estate market in 2026 moves on contradictory bases: a recovery in construction and credit volumes, hindered by the tightening of renovation aids and still unstable rental taxation. The most profitable arbitrations will hinge on the ability to read the new formula DPE and to anticipate the final fiscal framework for rental investment.